Joining the bandwagon, the investment bank has arrived at its prediction for the FIFA World Cup 2018 winner.
A certain sense of uncertainty looms over every match, every tournament, every international championship. And yet no one remain undeterred by this overarching unpredictability. As the ball sets in motion for the FIFA World Cup 2018 this week, the Goldman Sachs group foresees Brazil to clinch its sixth victory, by using an array of statistical tools.
The investment bank’s prediction is a result of 20,000 statistic models, using machine learning to run the numbers. It employed data mining to sift through team characteristics, individual data, and team performance across all World Cup and European Cup matches since 2005. More than a million simulations of outcomes were run to arrive at its final prediction. The calculations mark France, Brazil, Portugal, and Germany as the contenders for the semi-finals, with the final game witnessing Germany’s defeat by Brazil.
Interestingly enough, the group proclaimed Brazil as the victorious team for the 2014 World Cup, an outcome we know was hindered by the unanticipated performance of Germany, which paved the way for them to victory.
The barrage of tools and simulations are only credible to an extent; for the game of football is a thing of beauty, and the variables which can influence the spectacle remain undefinable. “It is difficult to assess how much faith one should have in these predictions,” Goldman Sachs mentions in this year’s report. “But the forecasts remain highly uncertain, even with the fanciest statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game. This is, of course, precisely why the World Cup will be so exciting to watch,” the report adds.
The 2018 World Cup is set to kick-start from June 14 and will keep fans across the globe on their toes till July 15. May the best team win!